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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd