🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."